EU Referendum 

A Chance To Make History ​

​Of all these issues in this referendum about migration, about money, about law; what it boils down to is what direction do we want for our country. Do we want to be governed more by someone else in Brussels, or do we want to be governed more by ourselves? 
The freedom we enjoy in this country has been hard won as been forged in our common history; its been snatched from the hands of tyrants and defended against dictators. I voted to leave in this referendum because I wanted control of our own law making; I want to be a properly democratic country and I want the elected parliament at Westminster to be the place that decides our laws; I want to be able to set our own borders and determine who settles in the UK; I want to be able to control our money.
There is no reformed EU to chose to be part of; we either have a free and outward looking Britain,  or we become part of what is an ever-closer union inside of the EU. It's been 41 years since we've had a say; it may be 41 years till we have a say again. Who knows what Britain will look like in an unreformed European Union. Don't miss the chance to determine the direction for our country: its a truly historic moment. 

Leave Are Not Quitters

One of the things that had irritated me in the referendum campaign is that the ones who want to leave the European Union are quitters. We know there is no reformed EU because we watch the Prime Minister in a political version of Oliver Twist asking for more from our European partners. 
For me, what is quitting is accepting that we are no in control over the laws under which we live; what is quitting is accepting that we cant control migration in our own country; what is quitting is handing over money year after year from British tax payers to European bureaucrats; what is quitting is giving away our veto in advance of our treaty on economic and monetary union.
We only have to look across that channel to see the failure of the euro and Schengen. I want to see a better future than being handcuffed to the political equivalent of condemned building. The manage decline of a failed Europe is not good enough. To leave is not to quit; to leave is to lead into a brighter and free'r Britain. 

Inconvenient Truths

​A number of very inconvenient truths have simply been ignored by the remain campaign in this referendum.
They talk about the importance of the single market for British trade. Yet the proportion of Britain’s trade going to the European Union has fallen from 55% 10 years ago to around 42% today. Economically, Europe is the slowest growing continent outside Antarctica. 
If we look at the 10 countries with whom we have our biggest trade surplus, only one, Ireland, is in the European Union. If we look at the 10 countries with whom we have our biggest trade deficit seven are in the European Union. 
The appalling failure of the euro continues to produce mass youth unemployment especially across southern Europe were 1 million jobs have been lost in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain in the last five years. Overall unemployment in the European Union is 8.9% and 10.3% in the Eurozone countries, well over double the rate in the UK. 
Yet the remain campaign insist that the EU is vital for our economic well-being. No wonder they prefer silly scare stories to the facts.

No Reformed EU

​Perhaps the greatest untruth of all in this EU referendum is that we can choose whether or not to remain in “a reformed EU.” Let’s be absolutely honest – there is no reformed EU on offer.
The inability to secure any meaningful renegotiation should make it perfectly clear that there is no change of course coming. We saw a British Prime Minister taking the political equivalent of a political begging bowl to Luxembourg and Slovenia to ask if we could please change some of our own benefit laws. There was no question of asking for changes to free movement because our European partners would not tolerate it - so we simply didn’t bother.
The European Union continues to heads towards ever closer union, just as it has done decade after decade. It is governed by a self-serving political elite with the unelected commission president declaring that the British would be treated as deserters if we voted to leave. They intend to integrate further on economics and we are each to have a European tax identification number. That’s before we consider harmonisation of property law or the creation of a European army. There is no reformed EU. The choice is ever closer union or to take control and vote leave on June 23.

Once Bitten Twice Shy 

​I was only 13 when voters were last given a say on European membership but when you talk to those who voted in the 1975 referendum, a common theme quickly emerges.
People will say that they voted to join the common market, believing it to be about trade and economics, but found themselves in a political union to which they never gave their agreement. They were told there would be no loss of sovereignty yet now find themselves unable to control their own laws, their own borders and their own money.
In this referendum will been given similar assurances – that the UK is exempt from ever closer union and that minor benefits changes will stem the tide of migration. We were conned then and we are being conned now. The choice is being in a Europe that will increasingly seek to control our national life or leaving the European Union to take control over our own future. Once bitten twice shy. Don’t be fooled again by a false prospectus.  Vote Leave on June 23rd.

Memories of Green: The Cost of Uncontrolled Migration 

In recent years the key factor driving the rise in the number of households has been population growth.
Most of this has come from outside the UK as a result of immigration. Our population has grown by around 3 million in the past decade. In the last year alone net migration was almost 300,000 with 184,000 coming from the EU. We cannot control these numbers if we remain in the EU.
Local authorities are being instructed by central government to build more and more homes as the ripples spread out from our failure to control immigration.
This means more and more green space will be lost at a time when the UK is twice as crowded as Germany and three and a half times more crowded than France. Once our green spaces have gone we will not see them again. We need to take control and vote leave.

The Question 

​Despite the wall to wall coverage of the EU referendum, a substantial number of people have not yet made up their minds.
If you fall into this category there is one question you should ask yourself – and it’s this: If we were not already in the EU, would you vote to join it on June 23rd?
 Would you vote to send £350 million to the EU every week, money that could be better spent according to our own priorities?
Would you vote to lose control of our borders with uncontrolled numbers putting pressure on school places, the NHS and housing?
Would you vote to have your own government over-ruled by an unelected European court? If you wouldn’t choose to join now if we were not already a member, why choose to stay? Take control. Vote Leave.

Yes We Can 

​President Obama this week reminded us of the sacrifices that were made by both the United States and the United Kingdom in freeing Europe from first fascism and then communism in the 20th century. We fought together to create self governing democracies, self governing democracies that have provided so much stability and prosperity in our world. Yet if we are to have these self governing democracies there are some freedoms that we require, freedom to make our own laws laws, freedom to determine our own borders  and freedom to spend our money as we see fit according to our own priorities. These are jealously guarded by the United States, the Americans would never give control over their lawmaking to a foreign court , or allow someone to tell them that they had to have an open border with Mexico or give away congress' powers to spend their money as the American people want. So my message to the President in his own words is very clear; for us in Britain can we take control of our own lawmaking? Yes we can. Can we take control over our own borders? Yes we can.  Should we have control over how we spend our own money according to our own priorities? Yes we can. What's good enough for the United States is good enough for the United Kingdom. What the American people take for granted it is time to take control of in the United Kingdom. It is time to leave.     

​The People's Revolt 

​​There is currently a strong anti-establishment feeling about politics on both sides of the Atlantic. And we are seeing the same phenomenon manifest itself in our EU Referendum. I've regularly referred to the "people's revolt" to describe the resentment felt across the country to what as seen as a wealthy, metropolitan, euro-centric, liberal coterie out of touch with vast parts of Britain. Outside the Westminster bubble people are increasingly seeing the remain campaign as being supported by the government machine, by the big banks, oil companies and industry, funded by Goldman Sachs and buttressed by the European bureaucracy. In these circumstances it is easy to see why the perception of remain as the elite is increasingly pervasive. in contrast to this top-down political campaign, the leave side is seen far more as a grass-roots movement  driven by those who have been denied a voice on the issue for decades and finally have a chance to be heard.           

EU Unemployment Fact And Fiction

​We are regularly told by those who want to keep us under the influence of Brussels that being in the European Union is absolutely key to our economic wellbeing. So, let’s look at some facts. Of the countries in the OECD, 16 of the 20 with the highest unemployment are in the European Union. Of the 10 countries with the highest unemployment, only one is not in in the European Union. Unemployment averages 6.5% in the OECD; 8.9% in the EU; and 10.3% in the Eurozone countries. So if the EU is so good and so key for economic wellbeing, why is it failing almost every other country in the EU? Britain’s unemployment is just over 5% because we operate a successful economic policy – made in Britain for Britain. We should be spared the lectures and the dodgy statistics by the Remain campaign.

Yes To Europe But No To The EU

​Europe is a continent rich with cultural diversity and heritage. It is made up of individual nations with their own identities and traditions and Britain is a proud part of that European family. Europe has given the world great treasures in art, music and literature and has led the world in scientific advance. From da Vinci, Mozart and Shakespeare to vaccines and antibiotics, Europe has been at the heart of global enrichment. My father taught French and Spanish so we spent a lot of time as a family in Europe when I was young. I loved and still love the sheer variety that Europe offers. But Europe and the EU are not the same thing. The EU is a short-term political construct that is holding back the people of Europe at a time of great global change. Wanting to leave the EU is not anti-European. And it is a lie to pretend it is. I want to be culturally European but politically British. Outside the EU, Britain will still be European and proud of it but free to take control and shape our own destiny.

The Union And The EU 

​One of the scare stories being put about in the EU referendum is that it would imperil the Union of the United Kingdom, its a story being put about by both the SNP and Project Fear from the remain campaign. In the Scottish Referendum the people of Scotland voted to part of the union and this decision about the EU will be taken by the whole of the union; whether voters live in Scotland, England, Northern Ireland or Wales all the votes will count exactly the same. It is also true that Euro sceptism in Scotland has actually risen in recent years years. The Scottish social survey suggested up to 60% of Scots are generally Eurosceptic compared to 65% in the country as a whole so there is absolutely no reason to presume that their behaviour is fundamentally different from the rest of United Kingdom. Those who say that they would like to vote to leave the EU but are afraid of the consequences for the union should consider this, the nationalists will introduce a referendum to leave whenever they can think that they can win it. Those who vote to stay in the EU but are worried about the union could find themselves with the worst of both worlds locked in to ever closer union in the EU and with the  union still in peril. This referendum needs to be determined about the big issues affecting the whole of our country, who makes our laws, who controls our borders. Do not be bullied do not be intimidated. Vote to leave.                        

​Our Immigration Pledge

​Immigration figures show net migration from the EU to Britain last year of over 170,000. Since the government made no attempt in the recent renegotiation to limit the principle of free movement of people, this level of migration is likely to continue for the foreseeable future especially if the UK continues to have much better economic growth than the rest of the EU.
 The absolutely minimal changes to migrant benefits that have been proposed will make no difference to this trend, especially when the new living wage becomes a magnet to overseas workers. All of this will make it impossible to meet the immigration targets set out in the Conservative manifesto, the basis on which we were elected. 
The choice is clear. Either we can leave the European Union and fulfil our pledges or we can remain and fail. I think we should keep our promises to those who voted for us and regain control of our borders. The only way to do it is to vote leave.

We've Seen The Deal... Time To Go

​I have consistently argued that we should leave the European Union because we are not in control of making our own laws and we do not have control of our own borders.
We now know the deal on offer to the UK from other European members. Does it make a difference?
There is no doubt that the Prime Minister put an enormous amount of effort into this agreement. Yet the whole process has become an illustration of why we need to leave. It is sorry spectacle to see a British prime minister having to take the political begging bowl round other EU states to ask their permission to make minor changes to our own system of welfare payments.
We didn’t get control of our own lawmaking and achieved no treaty change. The European Court still has the final say on our laws so we cannot escape from the concept of ever closer union.
We didn’t ask for any change to the free movement of people and so we will continue to have mass migration from the European Union as the British economy continues to grow, while Europe stagnates.
On top of all of this we are subsidising the whole process to the tune of £55 million per day, £10 billion per year, or the equivalent of one new hospital every week. That is money that would be better spent in Britain.
We’ve seen the deal – it’s time to go.
 

Project Fear 

​It is sad but unsurprising that those that want the British people to be kept in the European Union have launched what they call"Project Fear." This is designed to make the British People afraid of change. Between now and the referendum I'll be posting a number of pieces refuting their specific scare stories, but let me begin with a general point. Change cannot be avoided, whatever voters want they cannot vote for the status quo. the choice will be for either membership of the European Union that will continue to integrate its institutions and policies in the drive for ever closer union. Or it will be for a Britain that is able to make it's own laws, control it's own borders and determine its own future, without interference from Brussels. President Roosevelt said back in 1933 that we "have nothing to fear but fear itself." It's just as true today.                   

Not Isolated - Independent and Free 

​So the next thing that they want to peddle is that if Britain leaves the European Union It will become isolated. Listen to how many times they use that term isolated in the world! Now you correct me if I'm wrong, but the day after we vote to leave will we not still have a seat on the security council of the UN? Will we not still be at the heart of NATO? Will we not have a special relationship with the United States? Will we not be at the centre of the Commonwealth? Will we not still be in the G7? will not still be in the G20? Will we not be a country increasing our trade with the rest of the world outside the European Union? Does that sound like isolation to any of you in this room? This country has never been isolated, but what we have been is proud and independent and free. And it's because of our pride and our independence and our freedom we were able to save the European continent twice in the twentieth century from their own folly. So never let anyone tell us we will be isolated in this world.              

​Toyota And The Reality Of BREXIT 

​The announcement by Toyota’s chief executive, Akio Toyoda, that they will keep making cars in Britain, even if voters opt to leave the European Union is of tremendous importance. Firstly, it gives reassurance to those who work in its assembly plant near Derby and its engine plant in North Wales. Secondly, it blows out of the water the irresponsible scaremongering of the Remain campaign who repeatedly claim that millions of jobs will be lost and investment from overseas will disappear.
Thirdly, it reinforces the glaring economic truth that investment will come to countries that have low tax, low regulation and free market economies. Given that this is the basis on which Conservatives have encouraged investment in the United Kingdom, and that economic policy is unlikely to change, investment here is set to continue, especially when the Eurozone is failing.
Those who believe in the supranational project of the European Union should argue that case openly and honestly and not hide behind dishonest scare stories that do their credibility no good what so ever.

​The Referendum and Treaty Change

​t’s not yet clear exactly what the British government is asking for in its renegotiation with the European Union. In fact some sources are saying that nothing has yet been put on the table and the government is merely scoping our EU partners’ appetite for reform. What is clear is that any renegotiation that does not require a formal treaty change will not be worth having as we will simply continue on the path to ever closer union. What is equally clear is we must see treaty change before we vote. A post-dated check with protocols promising changes to subsequent treaties will not wash. Governments change and European treaties have to be ratified by referendums in France, The Netherlands and Ireland; the British people cannot possibly be asked to vote for something that cannot be guaranteed ever to be delivered.

​Greece From Tragedy to Pantomime

​So, the bottom line is that Greece voted against the bailouts plan, but will still have it imposed upon them anyway.

Let’s leave aside the political pantomime of the Greek Prime Minister seeking a mandate to oppose austerity and then imposing an even more extreme package himself. 

What is clear is that inside the Eurozone there is no ability for electorates to choose a radical alternative to the Berlin approved model. Just what the point of elections is, in these circumstances, is a good question. The President of the Commission has said that there can be no democratic vote on treaties. What the Brussels bureaucracy seems to fail to understand is how this may fan the flames of nationalism across the continent. They run the risk of exacerbating the very forces they were designed to diminish. They should be careful when playing with fire – someone is likely to get burned.

​Grexit (2)

​​It does not matter how much EU or IMF money is now thrown at Greece, Thessalonica will not be Düsseldorf any time soon.  The cultural gap remains huge. A Greek exit would be no panacea, and might even create its own array of difficulties. Even if, eventually, Greece leaves the single currency, it will still have huge structural economic and financial problems that will need to be addressed. One of the dangers is that it will suck in Russian or Chinese money becoming a strategic liability for the rest of Europe and the NATO Alliance more widely. Russia is, for example, keen to have allies who will block the renewal of EU sanctions over Ukraine. The Greek euro -tragedy is part of a wider problem and it is not going away any time soon.

Grexit (1)

​Whether or not Greece exits the Eurozone, there remain a number of uncomfortable truths for the rest of the EU, whether in the Eurozone or not. The first is that Greece is a failing state, something that will have implications far beyond the merely economic. Long before the financial crisis hit the global economy in 2008/9, Greece was in trouble. In the six years from 2004, Greek output increased in nominal terms by 40%, while government spending rose by 87%. Tax revenues rose by a mere 31%. The European authorities charged with overseeing the single currency should have acted then. Their failure to do so has been partly to blame for today’s crisis – and since 2010 the Commission and the IMF have joined the cast of those responsible. Greece alone is not to blame. The EU must take its share.

​The Madness of a European Army 

​The European commission president has started talking again about an EU army. He told a German newspaper that “a common Army among the Europeans would convey to Russia that we are serious about defending the values of the EU”. 

This talk is dangerous and delusional. First, we have a common defence alliance in NATO, which guarantees the protections of Europeans, including Norway and Turkey, vital strategic partners, neither of which are in the EU.

NATO also harnesses the military and economic power of the United States. Most EU members have shockingly low defence spending. They should fulfil their NATO obligations before considering anything else. Diverting scarce NATO funding at such a dangerous time is reckless and irresponsible and would send all the wrong signals to Moscow at exactly the wrong time.

​The Risks of the Euro 

​The Euro represents probably the biggest single risk to global financial stability in the world today. Its problems go back to its very creation. 

Not only were countries who failed to meet the convergence criteria allowed to join, but a lack of fiscal discipline meant that many countries broke through the barriers that were supposed to keep the currency on the rails. Little wonder that some states operated in the belief that whatever they did a financial solution would be found for them from outside.

The Euro project needs to be de-risked before it causes more damage. The recent experience in Greece, with the election of a government that believes it can defy economic gravity, will be repeated elsewhere unless action is taken.

​De-risking the Euro

​There are four potential ways to de-risk the euro. The first is for countries to simply return to their national currencies. This is not going to happen.

The second is for the outliers in the south of Europe to leave. This would undermine the whole “ever closer union” project, so this won’t happen either.

The third option would be for the biggest outlier, Germany, to leave and return to the Deutschmark. This will also not happen, not least because it would deny Germany the economic benefit of using a fundamentally undervalued currency. 

The fourth option is for those countries in the Eurozone, who genuinely believe in ever closer union, to move to full political, economic and monetary union.  If none of these options are taken, then it is highly possible that a Euro crisis could trigger a global financial crash. Time to wake up, Europe.

​Euro Crisis

​The Euro crisis continues to be the most important issue in European politics. It is one of the biggest threats to global economic confidence.  Yet, European leaders show absolutely no appetite for dealing with the cause of the problem. Inside the Eurozone unemployment is staggeringly high at over 12%- 14.4% if you exclude Germany- and growth is depressingly low. The non-Eurozone countries have an unemployment rate of 8.9% and much higher levels of growth. The Euro is like a sick patient whose immune system is down and susceptible to any infection going. European leaders need to de-risk the whole project before they bring a new financial crisis down on us all.  

The Unsustainable EU

​One statistic tells you all you need to know about the state of the European Union.

It represents 7% of the global population, 25% of global GDP and 50% of global social spending.

This is an utterly unsustainable position.

Without radical reform of its finances and spending, EU countries will eventually not only become more and more uncompetitive in a global context, but they will eventually be unable to meet their liabilities.

Already huge numbers of young people in Europe are unemployed.

How bad does it have to get before EU leaders waken up to economic reality?

How many young Europeans will be sacrificed on the altar of ever closer union?